Should Sreesanth Play in the Semis

As India go in to the Semis against arch rivals Pakistan, the one question that would be giving them the greatest trouble would be the opening bowling pair. So far, India have had moderate success with the pairs that they have tried. Barring Zaheer, and one exceptional performance from Munaf where he took 4 wickets against Bangladesh, there have been little glory to gloat. The "Spin Experiment" with Ashwin as the chief chemist has been decent at best but the effectiveness of that against a subcontinental team is circumspect. That leaves a serious question mark as to how to handle the first ten overs in this mother of all encounters when India comes to  bowl. Let's see in detail what do the logbooks tell us.

GROUND REALITIES

The PCA ground is a tricky beast. India haven't exactly set things on fire here. In all, this stadium has hosted 18 ODIs with India featuring in 9 of those and winning 5. Here is the shocker though. India and Pakistan have dueled 2 times with Pakistan coming victorious on both occasions. If this did not depress you enough (if you are an Indian fan like me), here is another...Pakistan has played 5 ODIs on this ground and the only team they have managed to beat is India. They have lost to Sri Lanka, South Africa  and New Zealand. And India have lost to no other team in this ground than Pakistan and Australia. Disturbing news!!! Below is a table that puts the performance of the two teams in perspective.

Stat Courtesy: www.espncricinfo.com

Few things are evident from this. 

• India has never batted second on this ground and hence has never won batting second. 
• Pakistan has won only when it has batted second. 
• India, even when batting first, has not managed to defeat Pakistan.
• One more stat that I have masked in this table is, in 15 of the Mohali Day/Night encounters, team batting First has one 8 times and the team batting second 7.

This means, MS Dhoni has a tricky job with the toss. If he wins, he must contend with the common providence that says bat first and defend which is further bolstered by the fact that India has done well batting second in this tournament. But then the two losses against Pakistan would loom large too. Shahid Afridi, on the other hand should have little worry in opting for bowling if he wins the toss. His bowlers have done well and the famed Indian batting has shown enough chinks in its armor to excite Afridi.

DEW DEW...WHERE ARE YOU

Dew plays a very important role in the Day/Night matches played in the sub-continent. During the March-April-May quarter, there have been 8 matches on this ground. And well,  Mohali, as tricky as it is, has an even-steven here too. Team batting first has won 4 times and so has team batting second. However, if we focus on only the D/N matches, there is some respite. Of the 6 D/N matches played in this time of the year, team batting first has gone home smiling 4 times. Here is another illustration.

Stat Courtesy: www.espncricinfo.com

But guys, look at the row in RED. That sinks my heart.

WHOM TO TAKE - NEHRA/MUNAF/SREESANTH

Bowling has been India's biggest worry. Apart from Zaheer and to an extent Ashwin, none else has shown any promise. Harbhajan was supposed to be India's striker but so far he has been playing second fiddle content with blocking runs. India is in serious need of a fast bowler to give Zaheer support from the other end. Ashwin opening the bowling against the likes of Australia and West Indies is one thing, but trying the same against the Pakistanis who see no demons in spin, could backfire. That Zaheer, Ashwin and Harbhajan will play is given. Question is, who will be the fourth bowler?

Should this be a question at all? Shouldn't they simply take the winning eleven of the last match? Why should they be even thinking about playing a mercurial, temperamental, inconsistent player like Sreesanth in this mammoth clash? Or for that mater the lackadaisical Nehra. All valid questions. But let's not write Sreesanth after just one flop show in this tournament. I mean, they were generous enough to grant Piyush Chawla a chance even after he failed in the first. And, Sree is a much more pedigreed bowler than Chawla. Same applies to Nehra. He has shown in the past that he could be lethal in big matches. Well, the reason behind this is, Munaf is not completing his quota of 10 overs. Against Australia, Dhoni had to bring in Sachin, who hasn't bowled since a long time and even Kohli who I saw bowl for the first time, to fill in for Munaf's lost overs. This dents India's bowling line severely as they are already one bowler short. Yuvraj is filling in wonderfully in that gap, but given the amount of responsibility he already shoulders in the middle order which is parasitic on him at the given moment, expecting him to pick wickets in every match is cruel. He needs to preserve the energy for his batting and fielding. 

Let's look at the 3 options closely. The table below gives an idea how each has performed.

www.espncricinfo.com

 Munaf is by far the best in the lot. But what troubles again is the fact that in the last 2 matches he has bowled only 12 out of the 20 overs allotted to him, giving 66 runs and scalping none. This puts pressure on the part time bowlers in a big way. Combine this with the fact that, his record in Mohali is not what would give a slam-dunk opinion in his favor and that he has never played against Pakistan in his career. This is bound to make him jittery when he comes down to the ground in the big match. Nehra's records are none too inspiring. But Sreesanth has some good things going for him. So, whom to pick?

We need to juxtapose this with the way Pakistan have been batting in this tournament to get some sense. In the whole tournament, Pakistan have played 7 matches and have lost 43 wickets in these 7 innings. Out of these, 26 have been taken by fast/medium fast bowlers. The only match they lost was against New Zealand  which was dominated by Ross Taylor's kamikaze and the laser guided bombs thrown by Kyle Mills and Tim Southee. They struggled against Australia and again it was Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson that gave them the grief. But they have played the spinners well. Case in point, against Sri Lanka, they lost only 3 wickets playing Murali, Herath and Dilshan while making 91 runs in 21 overs. Given that the Mohali pitch is assistive of the fast bowlers and that Pakistan haven't done too well against quality fast bowling,  it is a no-brainer that India must chose their second fast bowler wisely.

Sree too has played only one match in Mohali, but he was the stand-out performer in that, albeit for a lost cause. In the same match, Munaf was belted. The statistics is scant here. But with what we have in hand, Sree does look to have a microscopic upper hand. Add to that, Sreesanth has an extra yard of pace as compared to Munaf or Nehra. This along with the natural aggression he brings along, which on the context of this match is explosive makes his case stronger. He has not played since the drubbings in Dhaka. He is rested and must be raring to go. By giving him a chance, Dhoni would show the faith he needs desperately. If worse came to worst, he could not perform any less than what Munaf has to offer or what Nehra can do. Pakistan would not be expecting this. Their plans would be primarily to contain India's batting. Many of their pundits have already gone on the record saying that Pakistan can tackle India's bowling without much worry. In the background of all this, it would be an extremely interesting, if not overtly successful, move to let Sreesanth go berserk at the Pakistan openers. Zaheer has been lethal with the old ball but not so with the new one. India could look to attack Pakistan with the pace and aggression of Sreesanth in the first 10 overs without exposing the spinners within powerplay while Zaheer does a containment act from the other end.

Well, I shall bring this already overstretched post to an end here. Do post your thoughts. There are 3 more days before the monstrosity of a cricket match. There will be other analysis to come in these days. Till then...Au Revoir.